World Cup 2010 Game 22: Slovenia 2, United States 2

It wouldn't be a World Cup without some referee controversy, would it?

It was a bad call. A bad, bad call. Everyone agrees. Nobody on television, none of the commentators, most English observers, justified the phantom call that disallowed America's third goal and cost them two valuable points in pool play. It wasn't just that one call, though. The referee seemed to lose control of the match at times almost appearing Palinesque (or, more accurately Quaylesque) in his "deer in the headlights" approach to turning the other way. Slovenia went down with every challenge, delaying the game with phantom injuries that disappeared as soon as the player was off the pitch and ready to reenter. The United States seemed to get fouled willy-nilly without a call.

All that being said, they really shouldn't have been in that position to begin with, no? Once again the United States gave up an early goal. Considering how good Tim Howard is in goal, the number of shots let in should tell you something about how loose the United States's marking is on defense. Yes the first goal was a great strike, but given that much time and space a lot of players can make that play.

Landon Donovan made a sweet, sweet goal. If you are a superstar you are supposed to beat the goalie one on one and he did. Michael Bradley continues to come up with big goals. I wonder when American fans will let up on Bradley? It's almost because he doesn't have the flashy runs with the ball that they think he's terrible, but he ran down balls again and again and seems like a very heady player to me...knowing when to play up and when to stay back. How often, when opponents score, do you hear the announcers say "Oh, bad give away by Bradley?" or that Bradley was supposed to be marking his man?

Really, I suppose the way to look at this is that the U.S. needs to look at this, as poor as the officials decision was, is that they are pretty much where they expected they would be...needing a win against Algeria for a good chance to advance. Most probably thought that the United States would lose to England and beat Slovenia, thus going into the last game. That would have left them needing a result against Algeria to keep things in their own hand. There are a few remote scenarios where the United States could win against Algeria and still fail to advance. They would involve goal differentials and goals scored. Since Slovenia's win over Algeria was 1-0, they would have to score two goals in a tie with England to move ahead on goals scored, assuming the United States were only to win 1-0 against Algeria. The United States would still likely go through with a win.

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World Cup 2010 Game 21: Serbia 1, Germany 0

Things can change a lot from game to game. That's something United States fans should realize. Nobody looked more impressive than Germany in Round 1, punching in 4 goals. Serbia disappointed throughout their first game and then gave away a late penalty kick to lose to Ghana.

Those anxious to put Germany in the finals though got a taste of some poor officiating--a theme for the day. The game began with the referee handing out yellow cards on nearly every challenge. When German star Miroslav Klose picked up a second card on a second foul without much intent he was ejected from the game (and will miss the third game of pool play against Ghana). When Serbia scored Germany suddenly went from early tournament favorite to looking shaky to get out of the group.

It's hard for me to believe they won't beat Ghana, though. Germany controlled much of the play, even down a man, and even got a penalty kick in the latter stages. (What's with the Serbian players and handballs in the box?) When the keeper guessed right and stopped the free kick, Germany went home with the loss. If the United States manages to go through, chances are they may play one of these two teams.

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World Cup 2010 Game 20: Mexico 2, France 0

Well I was rooting for Mexico. Sort of.

I guess it is appropriate these two teams should play on the day that the Lakers and Celtics square off for the NBA championship. Like that game, this one had the consolation that one of the teams would lose.

Strictly from a regional affiliation, my desire was to see Mexico do well. They had never beaten a former World Cup champion, never beaten France. Their record against European powers is abysmal. Until Concacaf teams can beat the European powers, the United States will always be viewed as a light weight power no matter how much it dominates the region. So, yeah, America is helped by Mexico doing well. Helped in rankings and in keeping the regional interest alive.

That said, Mexico is a hard side to like. From their chippy play to their arrogance to their boorish fans (who threw batteries at Landon Donovan whenever he took a corner kick at Estadio Azteca) the image that surrounds this team is one of boorishness. That's a shame, really, because players like dos Santos are athletically gifted, and they always give the effort.

France, on the other hand, gave a lackluster performance and is in danger of going home without a goal. Amazingly, though, they are still alive. If Mexico and Uruguay tie, they both go through, but if one gets a result, France could go through on goal differential. I'm assuming Uruguay has the tie breaker with Mexico, so Mexico needs a result in order to win the group (and avoid Argentina in the round of 16). Best case scenario for France would be for Uruguay to beat Mexico by two goals (or more) and then they would have to beat South Africa by three or more goals. The host nation similarly could go through with a rout of France and some help in the other game, neither of which seems likely. Still, with Argentina looking good, Mexico and Uruguay do have something to play for and that is one small lining of hope for France.

The Mexican player definitely was offside for the first goal, but I don't have much sympathy for the French. If you watch the play, they assumed the call would be made and pulled up on defense. This is the World Cup guys, you have to play hard for ninety minutes.

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World Cup 2010 Game 19: Greece 2, Nigeria 1

Things can change in a hurry.

Greece was dead in the water having given up an early goal to Nigeria. Then Nigerian player Sani Kaita picked up a foolish red card forcing his team to play over half the match with 10 players. Kaita ran up to a Greek player on the sideline and shoved him out of bounds. When the Greek player gave him a little shove with the ball, Kaita gave him a kick with the cleats showing...an automatic red card. Greece scored the equalizer right before half time and then, despite some heroics by the Nigerian goal keeper the man advantage was too much.

Nigeria is not eliminated yet. They would have to beat South Korea by multiple goals and hope Argentina does the same to Greece. Still, Kaita will be regretting his scuffle for a long time. In many ways this World Cup has been more about errors so far than great plays. That will change as things move forward, but this error was as much mental as physical.

Greece is still a shade behind South Korea since the latter gets Nigeria in the last round robin game and Greece must play Argentina. That said, Argentina could be resting players having already gone through. (Mathematically they could still be eliminated but that would involve losing to Greece by maybe four goals and South Korea defeating Nigeria.) Second place in Group B is way up in the air.

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World Cup 2010 Game 18: Argentina 4, South Korea 1

Well if the first three games from the second round robin entries are any indication scoring will pick up somewhat. This makes sense since teams don't want to lose game 1, but the later you go in the first stage the more teams need a result. So teams that might be likely to play more conservatively in game 1 may be more likely to press for a result and you get a bit more up and down play.

Like Switzerland, South Korea got a quick goal off a long goal kick. In this case it wasn't a goalkeeper error but a lazy play by the defender who whiffed on possession and gave away an easy opportunity. Argentina was pushing the whole game, though, and while it took them well into the second half to reestablish the two goal lead they didn't look seriously threatened.

Higuain was the recipient of some nice work by Messi and may end up in contention for the golden boot (player with most scoring). That award can really depend a lot on how the team does overall.

From a South Korean point of view losing this game wasn't the end of the world but giving up the goal differential is worrisome since Nigeria only lost 1-0 to Argentina. As a result South Korea will go into the last game most probably needing a win against Nigeria (if Nigeria beats Greece). Also, since Argentina is guaranteed to go through there is no telling how aggressive they will be against Greece.

One thing I continue to admire about the Asian teams (Japan, North Korea, South Korea) is their effort. A lot of players will hustle when there is an obvious opportunity, but much like a baseball player who may or may not run out a pop fly, soccer players may not run down a play to be in position in case their is an error. A lot of teams would not have score in the situation South Korea did because many players would have assumed the defender would control the ball and would not have been in position to capitalize when the error was made.

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World Cup 2010 Game 17: Uruguay 3, South Africa 0

You want goals? Uruguay becomes only the second team of the World Cup to score more than two goals in one game. (In fact, only the Netherlands, South Korea, and Brazil in addition to these two teams have scored twice.)

Granted one goal was against a depleted and dispirited South African side fairly late in the game. South Africa's goalkeeper was sent off, meaning the team had to play with ten players. (They do get to use their second goalkeeper but he has to sub in for another player.)

As mentioned several times, the first tiebreaker for advancing is goal differential, so that third goal is pretty big. Uruguay will go into their final match, against Mexico, needing only a tie to guarantee going through to the next round and would probably advance even if they lose, unless there is a big shellacking. Strange things can happen, though. In last year's Confederation Cup the United States lost to Brazil and Italy yet managed to go through to the semifinals based on goals scored when they beat Egypt 3-0 and Italy lost to Brazil.

While not mathematically eliminated, South Africa would need a lot of help to advance. It would have to beat France and get some combination of results in the other games. Since no host nation has ever failed to advance to the second round, this is a bit of a big story. It was kind of sad to see the crowds flooding the exit late in the game.Kudos to ESPN for actually showing this and the commentators for mentioning it. Will the host nation get behind another African nation? Or will the rest of the matches become more muted? Some teams will travel well and have international appeal, but if there were already empty seats for, say Greece and South Korea, will FIFA be embarrassed if the crowds wane? Brazil is scheduled to host the 2014 World Cup, and given that this is the first African hosted World Cup, it's not out of the question that issues might affect the thinking of future bids. There are nine nations bidding to host 2018 or 2022: Australia, England, Japan (seems unlikely given that they were cohosts in 2006), Qatar, Russia, South Korea (see note for Japan), and the United States. Joint bids have been made by Belgium/Netherland and Portugal/Spain.

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World Cup 2010 Game 16: Switzerland 1, Spain 0

Well it took to the very last game of the first round set of games in Round 1, but we finally have a group favorite go down. Given how many pundits were picking Spain as a favorite to win the whole tournament, this was a shocker. (Other highest ranking teams in groups that did not win were France, Italy, and England.)

The game was the classic mode World Class upset where one team dominates play and makes plenty of opportunities but can't put the ball in the net. The Swiss goal, while not a fluke, game off a long goal kick, a challenge won in the air, and an opportunistic rebound.

One complaint I've heard about the World Cup is that with scoring down the "better" team doesn't always win. Funny how I didn't hear that complaint about hockey. In fact, the more I've blogged the more I've thought that the World Cup has a lot in common with America's favorite sporting event: the NCAA tournament. Sometimes the draw opens up for a team because a favorite is knocked off by someone else. Sometimes a serviceable team plays above their head for one game. Sometimes the style of play differs enough to make offensive juggernauts struggle to make points. For me, there is excitement seeing a team like North Korea standing toe to toe with Brazil or a Swiss team hanging on to a slim lead while a heavyweight tries to knock the door down.

Since this game means all teams have now played one of their three opening round games, here are a couple of questions to ponder going into the second round of pool play:

--How much trouble is Spain in?
A lot. The number two team in the world is certainly capable of getting through, but Chile looked awfully good against Honduras, and they can play for a tie against Spain. The Swiss are capable of losing a game, but even if they lose to Chile, they would still have an edge over Spain unless Spain beats Chile. (A tie is worth 1 point in pool play, a win 3). If Switzerland beats Honduras, they are through to the next round. Still, a team that looked hard pressed to score can never feel safe until they are there.

--Besides Spain, which group favorite (top seeded team in group) is least likely to advance?
The Italians looked poor in their opener, but they dodged the bullet that Spain couldn't, getting the goal to equalize. Neither New Zealand nor Slovakia look like a worrisome game. Nightmare scenario? The scoring drought continues and they play to 0-0 ties against weaker opponents, losing on goal differentials.

England is in good shape as they should beat Slovenia and Algeria, but Slovenia's win over Algeria means that if the United States should beat Slovenia, England will need to be concerned about goal differential to avoid a match with Germany in the round of 16. Nightmare scenario? Could Robert Green let in another soft goal? In a low scoring World Cup could a fluke goal given up to Slovenia in the third game could mean a first round exit.

Perhaps the biggest of the remaining big dogs to be in serious trouble is France, both because they didn't look good against Uruguay and Mexico tends to play up during the World Cup. Group A has one of the lowest differences between the two highest seeds. Portugal is ranked #3 in the world to Brazil's #1, making that the "group of death." Greece is the next highest ranking #2 seed at 13, six spaces behind Argentina. The United States is next at 14, six spaces behind England at 8. Mexico at 17, is 8 spaces behind 9th ranked France, but they are trending upward in the second half of qualification while France needed the famous handball to win the play-in series against Northern Ireland. Beyond the fact that France isn't playing particularly well, they are in a group with South Africa; the numbers say they won't go through but history is funny. The host nation has never failed to advance to the second round. Nightmare scenario? If Uruguay somehow manages to beat South Africa, France may be in a situation where it needs to beat Mexico. Even a tie against Mexico would leave them with 2 points going into a game with South Africa for all the marbles.

--Is Germany now the favorite?
Well, it was one game, and that against an aging Australia team. I'm not ready to anoint them just yet. I will say that with scoring being down and the altitude and ball playing tricks, the speedy wing play and passing of the Germans is looking better than the booming strikes from distance we are used to seeing. You can't win a World Cup in the first round, though, and none of those goals carry forward.

--Who outside of the Top 9 (Group Favorites + Portugal) has the best shot at a deep (say semi-finals) run?

On the basis of play in the first round, maybe Chile, but even if they win their group they get the "Group of Death" runner up. Certainly they could take Portugal (who, like France, struggled to qualify and looked listless against the Ivory Coast). But with the Swiss defeat of Spain, Chile might even get Brazil in the round of 16. That would be a fun game to watch, but they have a tough draw.

Both the Concacaf powers--U.S. and Mexico--would be possibilities. Of the two, I would say Mexico is more likely, because they could win their group and draw a Group B runner up that suddenly doesn't look like Greece anymore. I would certainly like the Tri Colores against Nigeria or South Korea (though no game is a shoo-in at that round). Also, I can't help but wonder whether all the concern about altitude might mean that the Mexican side--which plays a lot of games in Mexico City, might be more conditioned to altitude, which can affect both fatigue and ball flight characteristics.


Consider this scenario, though, with the United States having tied England, if they win against Algeria and Slovenia, that could mean that winning the group comes down to goal differential. And while Germany is waiting for the second place finisher in the US group, the winner of Group C gets the second place finisher in Group D--possibly Ghana. If Serbia can recover from their loss and grab the second spot they would also be a possibility. Granted, any game against an African team in the knock out stage would be a tough "away" match, the United States is used to playing in front of hostile crowds.

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